Sample walkthrough

Oak Knoll shows what a yellow chip looks like when the downside still matters.

The walkthrough is driven by the seeded Oak Knoll scenario. The page stays honest to the real computation instead of faking the recommendation.

Decision
Conditional
Net Profit
$212,413
Margin
21.5%
2841 Oak Knoll AvenueConditional
OAKLAND / SAMPLE MARKET
3 bed fix-and-flip with real hold sensitivity.
1,680 sqft1952database
Purchase price$540,000
ARV$990,000
Rehab budget$80,000
Hold months12 months
Downside profit$74,521
Step 1

Valuation

The first read anchors on purchase price, ARV, and max offer range. That frames whether the project even deserves scope refinement.

Purchase
$540,000
ARV
$990,000
Mid Max Offer
$552,820
Gross Profit
$288,794
Step 2

Scope

Scope is not a narrative exercise. Budget, contingency, and total rehab exposure need to sit in one frame.

Rehab budget
$80,000

User-entered base budget.

Contingency
10.0%

Inherited from the selected pack.

Fully loaded rehabFocus
$88,000

Budget plus contingency reserve.

Step 3

Schedule

A yellow decision often comes from timeline pressure. Oak Knoll is a case where extra hold time matters enough to keep the chip out of green.

Hold Period
12 months
Annualized ROI
71.0%
Downside Hold Shift
+4 months
Decision
Conditional
Step 4

Stack

Capital efficiency depends on financing costs, cash in, and the total project stack. Those numbers should be visible without opening another sheet.

Cash in$299,382
Debt balance$405,000
Financing cost$9,600
Holding cost$58,088
Selling cost$73,206
Step 5

Sensitivity

The downside case is where a conditional recommendation earns its label. If the downside still clears, the operator can negotiate instead of guessing.

Downside Profit
$74,521
Downside Margin
8.4%
ARV Delta
-10.0%
Rehab Delta
30.0%
DecisionConditional

Conditional

Oak Knoll works as a public sample because the reasons are inspectable. The deal is interesting, but the downside and timeline keep the recommendation from feeling automatic.

base_margin_ok
Base margin 21.5% meets 15.0% floor
downside_ok
Downside margin 8.4% holds above 5.0%
contingency_ok
Contingency 10.0% meets 10.0% floor
roi_ok
ROI 71.0% meets 18.0% floor
timeline_yellow
Hold period 12 months exceeds 10-month target